Hollywood’s Year-End Box Office Crisis: One Battle After Another

As 2025 nears its end, Hollywood finds itself weathering one box office disappointment after another. Despite a few bright spots earlier in the year, the fall season has turned grim, with several major titles collapsing in theaters — a worrying signal for an industry still struggling to rebuild consistent audience turnout.

A String of High-Profile Misfires

According to Variety, the latest string of underperformers includes One Battle After Another, The Smashing Machine, Roofman, Kiss of the Spider Woman, and Tron: Ares — all of which failed to ignite audience enthusiasm despite star power and critical praise.

A24’s The Smashing Machine, a sports biopic starring Dwayne Johnson as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, “died pretty quickly,” according to Virginia-based cinema owner Mark O’Meara. The film, made for around $50 million, saw a sharp 70% drop in its second weekend, bringing its domestic gross to just over $10 million. While A24 mitigated losses by selling foreign rights, industry insiders estimate a $10 million shortfall overall — a notable hit for a studio transitioning into bigger-budget filmmaking.

Meanwhile, Roofman — a dramedy starring Channing Tatum — opened to a modest $8 million and quickly lost steam. Paramount and Miramax are expected to keep losses minimal due to its lean $19 million budget, but the film’s tepid performance further underscores the struggle of mid-budget originals to find footing.

Jennifer Lopez’s Kiss of the Spider Woman, a $34 million musical adaptation, barely made a dent, debuting with just $850,000 from limited screens. Analysts point out that audiences have shown little interest in adult-skewing fare unless bolstered by IP or event status.

Prestige Fails to Pay: The Case of One Battle After Another

Even the critically acclaimed One Battle After Another, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and led by Leonardo DiCaprio, has struggled commercially. Despite earning $140 million globally, the Warner Bros. production reportedly cost $130 million to make, with an additional $70 million in marketing — leaving it roughly $100 million short of profitability, as reported by Variety.

While Warner Bros. disputes those loss estimates, the film’s underperformance is significant, especially given its Oscar ambitions and lengthy runtime. Analysts suggest that even well-reviewed prestige projects have failed to create a “fear of missing out” among moviegoers, with many audiences preferring to wait for streaming releases instead of theatrical runs.

The Tron Trouble: Tron: Ares Adds to the Year’s Woes

Adding to the pile, Tron: Ares, Disney’s big-budget sci-fi sequel, has stumbled in its early rollout. According to Box Office Mojo data, the film’s global total stands at approximately $210 million against a reported $200 million production cost, with marketing expenses likely pushing it deep into the red. Despite an ambitious visual design and star Jared Leto’s return, Tron: Ares failed to attract younger audiences, highlighting franchise fatigue even among established IP.

The Audience Shift and the Streaming Effect

Industry analysts note that the shrinking theatrical window — now often down to just two weeks before digital release — has fundamentally changed audience behavior. As Fandango’s Shawn Robbins observed, “People have come to expect these movies to be available in the home much sooner than they used to be.”

This post-pandemic shift has hit adult dramas and original IP the hardest. As Texas Capital Securities analyst Eric Wold explains, “Consumers go to the theater a few times a year at most. They gravitate towards what they know — sequels, prequels, and spinoffs where they’re less likely to walk away disappointed.”

With revenues still about 20% below 2019 levels, studios face growing pressure to balance originality with financial security.