With voting now officially closed for the 98th Academy Awards, the final phase of this year’s awards race has begun. Campaigning has ended, ballots have been submitted, and attention now turns to the results that will be revealed when the ceremony takes place on March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The Oscars honoring films released in 2025 have produced one of the most competitive fields in recent memory, with several categories still generating intense debate across the industry. Yet as the season has unfolded, the broader narrative of the race has increasingly centered on two films: Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler, and One Battle After Another, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson.
The Best Picture field this year includes an eclectic mix of contenders such as Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, Bugonia, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and F1. Despite the variety of nominees, awards-season momentum has gradually pushed most of these films into the role of outsiders, leaving the real contest between Coogler’s genre-bending epic and Anderson’s sweeping political drama. The two films represent very different visions of contemporary cinema — one a Southern Gothic vampire saga blending horror, music, and historical drama, the other a dense political thriller adapted from elements of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland. Their rivalry has become the defining storyline of the 2026 Oscars.
At first glance, Sinners appears to have overwhelming support. The film secured a record-breaking 16 Academy Award nominations, surpassing the long-standing mark of 14 nominations previously held by films such as Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land. Its nominations span virtually every branch of the Academy — acting, directing, writing, and multiple technical categories — signaling that voters across the industry responded strongly to its ambition and scale. Films with large nomination totals often go on to dominate the technical categories, a pattern seen in titles like Mad Max: Fury Road and Dune. With nominations in areas such as sound, makeup and hairstyling, production design, and costume design, Sinners has a clear path to collecting several trophies even if it ultimately falls short of Best Picture.
Yet nomination strength alone rarely determines the Academy’s top prize. The Oscars use a preferential ballot system for Best Picture, meaning voters rank films rather than choosing only one. In practice, this system often rewards the film that is broadly admired across the membership rather than the one that inspires the most passionate first-place votes. Sinners may generate intense enthusiasm among certain branches — particularly actors and craftspeople — but if the film proves polarizing because of its genre elements, it could lose ground to a film that consistently appears as the second or third choice on ballots. In that scenario, One Battle After Another could emerge as the “consensus” winner even if it does not dominate the first-place rankings.
Anderson’s film enters the ceremony with powerful statistical momentum. Throughout the awards season, One Battle After Another has performed exceptionally well at major industry ceremonies and international awards. Historically, films that combine strong guild support with recognition from bodies like BAFTA frequently translate that momentum into Oscar victories. The film’s prestige also aligns with traditional Academy tastes: an ambitious political narrative from one of contemporary cinema’s most respected auteurs. Despite numerous nominations throughout his career, Anderson has never won either Best Director or Best Picture, adding another compelling narrative to the race.
The acting categories further illustrate the divide between the two leading contenders. In the Best Actor race, Michael B. Jordan has emerged as the frontrunner for his dual performance in Sinners, portraying the twin characters Smoke and Stack. Dual roles have historically fascinated Oscar voters because they require an actor to create two distinct personalities within the same narrative framework. Jordan’s recent victory at the Actor Awards — including the ensemble prize for the cast of Sinners — significantly strengthened his position. The ensemble award is widely considered one of the strongest indicators of Best Picture strength because the actors branch represents the largest voting bloc within the Academy. If that branch rallies behind Sinners, it could provide the late momentum needed to challenge Anderson’s film. Jordan’s primary challengers include Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another and Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme, though Jordan’s awards-season surge has positioned him as the category’s likely winner.
The Best Actress race appears comparatively clearer than many of the other major categories, with Jessie Buckley emerging as the dominant contender for her emotionally layered performance in Hamnet. Buckley plays a grief-stricken mother navigating loss in Shakespearean England, a role that has resonated strongly with both critics and industry voters throughout the season. While competitors such as Emma Stone for Bugonia and Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another remain in the conversation, the awards trajectory has largely favored Buckley. Her consistent recognition across critics’ groups and industry ceremonies has positioned her as the category’s most likely winner, particularly in a year where the Academy appears inclined to reward emotionally driven dramatic performances.
The Supporting Actor race presents a similar dynamic, though with stronger competition beneath the frontrunner. Sean Penn has emerged as the leading contender for his performance in One Battle After Another, portraying a morally ambiguous military figure whose presence anchors the film’s political tension. Penn’s dominance during the awards season — including major precursor wins — has made him the statistical favorite heading into Oscar night. However, performances from Benicio Del Toro in the same film and Paul Mescal in Hamnet have maintained visibility in the race, reflecting the Academy’s appreciation for character-driven supporting performances.
The Supporting Actress category remains somewhat more fluid. Amy Madigan has emerged as the early favorite for Weapons, largely due to strong momentum from industry awards. Yet the category still carries the potential for a late shift. Teyana Taylor, whose performance in One Battle After Another has been widely praised, represents the most plausible spoiler. Should Anderson’s film perform strongly across the ceremony, Taylor could benefit from the broader support surrounding the film, illustrating how the Supporting Actress race may ultimately reflect the overall strength of the Best Picture contenders.
Another historic element of this year’s ceremony is the introduction of the Academy’s newest category: Best Casting. The 98th Academy Awards mark the first time that casting directors will receive an Oscar for their work. Because casting decisions directly shape a film’s performances, the category is closely tied to the actors branch of the Academy. Both Sinners and One Battle After Another are expected to be strong contenders for this inaugural award, and the result could provide an early indication of which film commands deeper support among performers.
The screenplay categories further illustrate how Academy voters may divide their admiration between the two films. Sinners is widely considered the favorite for Best Original Screenplay, reflecting strong support from the writing community for Coogler’s ambitious storytelling. Meanwhile, One Battle After Another is expected to win Best Adapted Screenplay for Anderson’s intricate interpretation of Pynchon’s literary work. The split suggests that voters may ultimately distribute major awards between the two films rather than allowing one to dominate the entire ceremony.
Beyond the central rivalry between the two films, the Best International Feature category introduces another intriguing subplot. Both Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent are nominated not only in the international category but also for Best Picture — a rare achievement previously seen with films like Parasite. Historically, when a film crosses over into the Best Picture lineup, it often goes on to win the international Oscar as well. Norway’s Sentimental Value has accumulated an impressive number of nominations overall, while Brazil’s The Secret Agent carries strong momentum after major international recognition and a widely praised performance by Wagner Moura. Other nominees add additional weight to the category, including It Was Just an Accident by Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi, as well as The Voice of Hind Rajab, whose subject matter carries significant political and humanitarian resonance that could attract passionate support from Academy voters.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 98th Academy Awards may hinge on the dynamics of the preferential ballot. If voters strongly favor One Battle After Another as their top choice, its guild momentum could carry it to victory. But if Sinners appears consistently near the top of ballots across multiple branches, its broad coalition of support could propel it to an upset win.
Whatever the final outcome, this year’s Oscars have already produced one of the most fascinating awards races in recent memory. On one side stands the genre-defying ambition of Sinners, a film that has already rewritten the Academy’s nomination record. On the other stands the meticulous political storytelling of One Battle After Another, backed by the weight of guild victories and auteur prestige. When the envelopes are opened on Oscar night, the Academy will ultimately decide whether it prefers emotional momentum or statistical dominance — a choice that will define the cinematic legacy of the 2026 awards season.
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