The North American box office is welcoming another superhero to theaters this weekend, but early numbers suggest that Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 will continue its dominance despite the arrival of Warner Bros. and DC Studios’ Supergirl. While the comic book adventure has posted a respectable start, softer-than-expected projections and mixed critical reception have prevented it from seriously challenging Pixar’s animated blockbuster.
Toy Story 5 is projected to remain the No. 1 film in North America with an estimated $74 million second weekend from 4,425 theaters. The animated sequel is expected to cross the $300 million domestic milestone in just 10 days, further cementing its status as one of the biggest theatrical successes of 2026. Friday collections are estimated at $22 million, placing the film on track for a 54% second-weekend decline, a hold comparable to Incredibles 2, which fell 56% in its second weekend after its record-breaking debut.
Meanwhile, Supergirl is currently tracking toward a $40 million opening weekend from 3,602 theaters, landing at the lower end of earlier industry projections that had placed the film between $47 million and $50 million. The superhero adventure earned $7.8 million in domestic preview screenings, including Wednesday fan events and Thursday previews, while its first wave of international markets contributed $5.2 million, taking its global first-day total to $13 million.
The preview figure compares favorably with several recent superhero releases. Supergirl opened ahead of The Marvels, which collected $6.6 million in previews before a $46.1 million domestic debut, and narrowly surpassed Black Adam’s $7.6 million preview gross. However, it remained below The Flash, which earned $9.7 million in previews before opening to $55 million domestically.
Warner Bros. is still hoping the film can deliver an $80 million-plus worldwide opening weekend as it rolls out across 77 international markets on nearly 46,000 screens. China and Japan joined the release on Friday, while France and Belgium are scheduled to open next weekend, giving the film additional international runway.
Despite the encouraging preview performance, Supergirl faces a more challenging road ahead. The film currently holds a 57% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, with mixed reviews emerging ahead of release. As a result, audience word-of-mouth is expected to play a much larger role in determining whether the film can generate the long theatrical legs needed to support its reported $170 million production budget, excluding worldwide marketing costs.
The film also represents an important milestone for DC Studios. It is the second theatrical release under the leadership of James Gunn and Peter Safran following last year’s successful Superman, making its commercial performance another key test for the rebooted DC Universe. While Superman benefited from the global recognition of one of comic books’ most iconic heroes, Supergirl faces the challenge of building a wider audience around Kara Zor-El, a character who has historically enjoyed less mainstream recognition.
Adding to the pressure is the broader state of the superhero genre. After dominating the global box office for nearly two decades, comic book films have faced increasing signs of audience fatigue. Recent releases from both Marvel and DC, including Thunderbolts and Captain America: Brave New World, struggled to meet expectations, raising questions about whether even established franchises can consistently deliver blockbuster openings.
Even so, Warner Bros. has reason for optimism. Supergirl has performed above expectations in several key domestic markets, including Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Washington D.C., and Orlando, suggesting that interest remains strong in major urban centers. The studio has also mounted its largest-ever promotional campaign for a DC Studios release, reportedly generating more than $100 million in global media value through brand partnerships.
Elsewhere at the box office, Paramount’s Jackass: Best and Last is targeting an $8 million to $10 million opening weekend after earning $1.2 million in previews. While the opening is modest, the comedy has received strong reviews, holding 88% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and 85% from audiences.
Focus Features’ sleeper hit Obsession continues its remarkable run with an estimated $8.5 million seventh weekend, taking its domestic total to approximately $232.6 million, while Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day is expected to collect another $7 million in its third weekend, pushing its domestic tally beyond $93 million.
For now, however, the story of the weekend belongs to Toy Story 5. Despite fresh competition from a major DC release, Pixar’s latest sequel continues to demonstrate exceptional staying power. Supergirl has delivered a respectable launch, but whether it can build momentum beyond opening weekend will likely depend on audience reception rather than franchise recognition alone.
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