Amazon MGM’s Verity is heading into its opening weekend with a domestic box-office projection of around $25 million to $35 million, according to the latest tracking. The psychological thriller, based on Colleen Hoover’s bestselling novel, is set to open in U.S. theaters on October 2 and will enter a competitive October frame alongside Tom Cruise’s Digger.
The film stars Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett, with Michael Showalter directing. Johnson plays Lowen Ashleigh, a struggling writer who is hired to complete the unfinished book series of bestselling author Verity Crawford, played by Hathaway. After moving into the Crawford family home, Lowen discovers a disturbing manuscript that raises questions about Verity, her husband Jeremy and the events surrounding their family.
Verity is expected to benefit from the popularity of Hoover’s novels and the strong recognition of its three leads. Hoover’s previous book adaptations have already shown that her audience can translate into theatrical business. It Ends With Us, starring Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni, opened to $50 million domestically in 2024 and eventually reached $148.5 million in North America.
However, the more recent adaptations Regretting You and Reminders of Him opened at lower levels, at approximately $17 million and $13 million, respectively. The figures provide a range of recent theatrical openings for Hoover adaptations, with Verity currently tracking above those two titles but below the opening level of It Ends With Us.
The latest tracking places Verity above those two recent Hoover adaptations, but below the opening level of It Ends With Us. Boxoffice Pro currently gives the film a $25 million-$35 million weekend range and estimates that an opening between $25 million and $29 million is the most likely range based on current sales. The publication also notes that the film could move above $30 million if walk-up business is stronger than expected over the weekend.
The film’s R rating also sets it apart from Hoover’s earlier theatrical adaptations. It Ends With Us, Regretting You and Reminders of Him were released as PG-13 films, while Verity is aimed at a more adult audience through its psychological thriller elements and erotic content. Boxoffice Pro has compared the film with other adult-oriented thrillers such as A Simple Favor and The Girl on the Train, which opened to $16 million and $24.5 million, respectively.
Another factor working in the film’s favor is its cast. Hathaway arrives after major recent theatrical successes including The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey, while Johnson remains closely associated with the Fifty Shades franchise. Hartnett, meanwhile, returns to a major theatrical release in a story built around mystery, relationships and hidden secrets. The combination gives Verity a recognizable cast while keeping the film within the thriller genre.
The movie will also have to compete for attention with several other titles entering the domestic market. Digger, starring Tom Cruise and directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu, is also opening on October 2. Current tracking places Digger in the $8 million-$12 million range, meaning Verity is currently projected to have the larger opening weekend.
For Verity, the main question will be how strongly Hoover’s readership translates into opening-weekend moviegoing. The film has the advantage of a bestselling source novel, three recognizable leads and an established audience for Hoover adaptations. At the same time, its R rating and thriller-focused story make it different from some of the author’s earlier screen adaptations.
The film’s positioning also gives it a distinct profile within the current theatrical market. Rather than following the PG-13 approach of Hoover’s previous theatrical adaptations cited in the tracking, Verity is being presented as an R-rated psychological thriller with darker and more adult-oriented material. That difference could influence the composition of its opening-weekend audience, while the recognition surrounding Hoover’s novel and the film’s cast provides the primary factors behind the current tracking.
With the latest domestic tracking pointing toward a $25 million-$35 million opening weekend, Verity is entering theaters with expectations for a solid start. The final result will depend on audience turnout during the October 2-4 weekend, particularly whether strong walk-up sales push the film toward or beyond the upper end of its current projection.