The US domestic box office is heading into CinemaCon on a strong note, with early weekend projections indicating a healthy market driven almost entirely by holdover titles. Despite the absence of major new wide releases, films already in circulation are continuing to deliver solid numbers, led by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary.
Based on early estimates, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is once again set to dominate the charts in its second weekend. The Illumination, Nintendo and Universal animated sequel is projected to earn between $60 million and $71 million over the three-day frame, after posting an estimated $18.7 million on Friday. This represents a week-on-week drop of around 46 percent — a strong hold considering the film’s massive opening.
By the end of Sunday, the film’s US domestic total is expected to reach approximately $310 million. This places it among the top-performing animated titles in terms of second weekend holds, currently tracking as the seventh-biggest second weekend for an animated film. While it trails behind major benchmarks like Inside Out 2 and Frozen 2, the performance still signals sustained demand, particularly among family audiences. The film’s continued hold on IMAX and premium large-format screens has further supported its momentum.
Holding firmly in second place, Project Hail Mary is continuing its impressive theatrical run with one of the strongest holds in the market. The sci-fi drama is projected to earn around $25 million to $25.5 million in its latest weekend, following a $6.3 million Friday. With a drop of just around 20 percent, the film is demonstrating exceptional stability — a rarity in the current box office landscape.
By Sunday, its US domestic total is expected to reach approximately $257 million. At this stage, the film is tracking just a few percentage points behind Oppenheimer at a similar point in its run, highlighting its long-term potential. Strong word-of-mouth and repeat viewership appear to be driving its sustained momentum.
Among the newer entries, You, Me & Tuscany is projected to open in the range of $8 million to $8.3 million. The romantic drama earned an estimated $3.2 million on Friday, including preview figures of around $750,000. While the opening is modest, audience reception has been notably stronger than critical response, suggesting potential stability in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, A24’s The Drama, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, is expected to collect between $7.6 million and $8 million in its second weekend, reflecting a drop of around 44 percent. The performance aligns with comparable adult dramas, indicating a steady trajectory.
Disney and Pixar’s Hoppers continues its consistent theatrical run, with projections placing its weekend earnings at around $4 million. This would take its US domestic total to approximately $157 million, allowing it to surpass the lifetime domestic run of Elemental.
Beyond the top tier, films like They Will Kill You and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come are continuing their expected declines, contributing to a balanced marketplace rather than one dominated by a single release.
To better understand the current momentum, weekday performance leading into the weekend provides additional context. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie led the week with a massive $180 million haul, registering a sharp +204 percent surge and reinforcing its dominant theatrical presence.
Project Hail Mary followed with $45.5 million across the week, marking a 41 percent drop but still maintaining a highly stable trajectory in its third week. The Drama added $22.1 million in its opening week, establishing a solid base among adult audiences.
Hoppers contributed $9.1 million during the week with a modest 24 percent decline, continuing its steady long-run performance. Meanwhile, A Great Awakening rounded out the top five with $3.6 million in its debut week.
These weekday numbers underline a crucial trend — the current strength of the US domestic box office is not solely dependent on weekend spikes but is being supported by consistent midweek collections. This reflects strong word-of-mouth, repeat viewership, and sustained audience interest across multiple titles.
As the industry heads into CinemaCon, this stability offers a positive signal for both exhibitors and studios. Even without major new releases, the market is holding firm — driven by films that continue to bring audiences back to theaters.
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