Hollywood is finally exhaling. After one of the weakest fall box office seasons in over a decade, the industry is bracing for a powerful resurgence as Universal’s Wicked: For Good arrives in over 4,000 North American theatres this weekend. The second chapter of Jon M. Chu’s ambitious two-part musical adaptation has quickly become the most-watched title on the release calendar, and projections indicate it may deliver the biggest opening of 2025.
Early numbers reflect a wave of confidence across exhibition circuits and forecasting panels. Current domestic projections place the opening anywhere between $150 million and $180 million, a range that positions the film ahead of A Minecraft Movie ($162.8M) and Disney’s Lilo & Stitch remake ($146M). That puts Wicked: For Good in realistic contention for the year’s largest debut. Some industry observers are even more bullish, citing pre-sales that resemble the peaks seen during Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Deadpool & Wolverine. Those projections set a more ambitious upper range of $180 million to $210 million, depending on walk-in momentum over the Thanksgiving corridor.
Expectations are elevated because the film arrives with a far more favorable landscape than its predecessor. The first Wicked, released in November 2024, opened to a historic $112.5 million — the biggest debut for a Broadway musical adaptation — before becoming a long-running holiday event and climbing to $474.5M domestic and $758.8M worldwide. With the brand now fully established, the sequel is being treated as essential viewing. Universal has offered a conservative estimate of $125M+, but exhibition chains are reporting “unusually massive” advance ticket sales, with several multiplexes confirming demand they “haven’t seen in years.”
International turnout will add significant weight to the film’s early performance. Projections from overseas markets indicate over $70 million from 78 territories during opening weekend, placing the global launch comfortably above $200 million, with enough room for upside if family-driven attendance spikes across key holiday markets. This aligns with early fan enthusiasm: Amazon Prime Early Access screenings generated a remarkable 97% Popcornmeter score, signalling strong grassroots support.
A major contributor to this momentum has been Universal’s aggressive and inventive marketing campaign. The film’s collaboration with Dancing with the Stars — featuring a custom opening number choreographed by Christopher Scott and an appearance by Jon M. Chu — generated 57 million TikTok views in just 24 hours and delivered the show’s strongest 18–24 demo ratings since 2015. Combined with a strategic promotional calendar that launched on October 8, the studio has positioned Wicked: For Good as a cultural event rather than a routine sequel.
But the only remaining question is longevity. Critics have been somewhat more divided this time. The first Wicked carried an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score, while the sequel currently sits in the low 70s — not a red flag for opening weekend turnout, but a potential factor in long-run stability. The first film held exceptionally well through the holiday corridor, driven by mother-daughter viewings and strong general-audience repeat value. Replicating that kind of hold will determine whether For Good becomes one of the year’s highest-grossing releases or leans more heavily on its front-loaded start.
For an industry in recovery, however, the opening alone could be transformative. The 2025 marketplace has been waiting for a broad-appeal theatrical event — one outside superheroes, sequels fatigue, or mid-budget dramas — to reignite moviegoing habit. Wicked: For Good arrives with spectacle, star power, generational emotional connection, and timing that couldn’t be better positioned on the calendar.
As Glinda sings “Thank Goodness,” theatre owners across the country may echo that same relief this weekend. Wicked: For Good isn’t just flying toward a huge debut — it could very well be the jolt Hollywood has been waiting for, a reminder that the right film at the right moment can still turn the entire theatrical narrative around. Whether it becomes the year’s defining hit will be answered in the coming weeks, but the opening weekend is already shaping up to be nothing short of spellbinding.
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