The summer box office is showing little signs of slowing down, but this weekend’s biggest question isn’t whether Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 will remain No. 1. The real story is whether Warner Bros.’ Supergirl can prove that the rebooted DC Universe has momentum beyond Superman.
While Supergirl and Paramount’s Jackass: Best and Last arrive as the weekend’s major newcomers, neither film is expected to challenge Toy Story 5, which is projected to comfortably retain the top spot at the North American box office.
Industry forecasts currently place Toy Story 5 in the $80 million to $90 million range during its second weekend, while Supergirl is tracking for a domestic debut between $47 million and $50 million. Meanwhile, Jackass: Best and Last is expected to launch with approximately $10 million to $12 million.
The projected result would extend what has already been a remarkable start for Pixar’s latest sequel. After opening to a massive $159.6 million domestic debut, Toy Story 5 crossed the $200 million mark in North America within its first week of release. The film has also surpassed $300 million worldwide and is rapidly emerging as one of 2026’s biggest box office successes.
The sequel is expected to decline between 40% and 45% in its second weekend, a strong hold for a blockbuster of its size. By comparison, Pixar’s Inside Out 2 delivered one of the best second weekends ever for an animated film with a 34% decline after opening to $154.2 million last year.
The performance further reinforces the strength of family-oriented franchises at a time when original animation continues to face theatrical challenges. Recent animated sequels such as Inside Out 2, Zootopia 2, and now Toy Story 5 have demonstrated that established brands remain among Hollywood’s safest theatrical investments.
For Warner Bros., however, the focus will be on Supergirl. The $170 million DC Studios production represents the second theatrical release under the James Gunn and Peter Safran era following last summer’s successful Superman reboot. Directed by Craig Gillespie and starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, the film is based on Tom King and Bilquis Evely’s acclaimed comic series Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow.
While a projected $47 million to $50 million opening would be considered a solid debut, it falls well short of the $125 million launch achieved by Superman, which eventually earned more than $618 million worldwide.
That comparison is perhaps unavoidable. Unlike Superman, one of the most recognizable superheroes in popular culture, Supergirl remains a less familiar character among general audiences. As a result, the film may serve as the first real test of whether the new DC Universe can generate sustained audience interest beyond its flagship hero.
There is some encouraging context for Warner Bros. despite the softer projections. Supergirl is currently tracking above several late-stage DC releases from the previous regime, including Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which opened to $27.4 million domestically, and Shazam! Fury of the Gods, which debuted with $30.1 million.
Internationally, the film is reportedly targeting around $40 million from overseas markets, which could place its global opening weekend between $80 million and $90 million. Meanwhile, Paramount’s Jackass: Best and Last arrives as the franchise’s purported farewell chapter. The film reunites Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O, Wee Man, Chris Pontius, and several longtime cast members for another round of stunts, pranks, and chaos.
The comedy is expected to open between $10 million and $12 million domestically, significantly below the $23.1 million debut of Jackass Forever in 2022 and far behind the franchise-record $50.3 million opening of Jackass 3D in 2010. However, profitability may not be a major concern. Produced on a reported budget of just $10 million, the film requires far less box office revenue than most studio releases to reach the black. The previous installment ultimately generated more than $80 million worldwide against a similar production cost.
Beyond the individual releases, the weekend continues what has been one of the strongest summer box office periods since the pandemic. According to industry estimates, domestic revenues are currently running just 1.8% behind 2019 levels, the final pre-pandemic benchmark year. A combination of franchise hits and sleeper successes has helped drive the recovery. Alongside Toy Story 5, films such as Obsession, Backrooms, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Scary Movie have contributed to one of the healthiest theatrical markets seen in years.
Heading into the weekend, Toy Story 5 remains the clear favorite to dominate the box office once again. But while Pixar’s sequel is expected to continue its impressive run, the industry’s attention may be focused elsewhere. The performance of Supergirl could provide the clearest indication yet of whether the rebooted DC Universe can build a sustainable future beyond the Man of Steel.
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